Strategic Investments in Mitigation, Adaptation, and Recycling Innovations at Basic Scale
This study aims at developing a long-term and integrated water-energy-economic model that allows for:
- Implementing intertemporal investment and endogenous technological change framework (Ramsey model) to improve water-economic modeling capacity for analyzing long-term strategies.
- Assessing the optimal investments over time to simultaneously adopt mitigation, adaptation, and resources recovery strategies at river basin or national scale.
- Examining the impact of environmental changes (climate or water supply) and economic instruments (markets, tax, subsidy, etc.) on the technology adoption rates, economy and GHG reduction potential.
The proposed model comprises four modules: water, land use, energy, and economics. The water module is built based on river node network scheme that reflects water flow and use interlinkages among the river nodes (upstream, mid-stream, downstream) and water consumers (irrigation, industrial and residential sites, energy, ecosystems). The land use module reflects the dependence of crop yield and biomass on soil fertility and moisture content. The energy module considers energy demand for all water supply (surface, groundwater pumping, wastewater treatment) and agricultural operations, and energy supplies from both fossil and renewable sources including solar radiance, wind speed, bio-waste and bio-fuel crops. The economics module is based on Ramsey model framework and considers the intertemporal allocation of income between consumption and investments (to enhance capital stocks and adopt adaptation, mitigation, resource recovery technologies).
Income in the model depends on labor, capital and energy uses. Objective function in this module considers the maximization of utility from consumption. This module also comprises aggregated water demand for energy and food production, aggregated energy demand for water supply and agriculture, and bio-energy supply from land use sector. The developed model will be applied to the case of Central Asia (particularly Uzbekistan) where water scarcity and environmental degradation are challenging issues because of climate change, transboundary conflicts, inefficient water institutions and outdated infrastructure. To assess climate impact scenarios, integrated water-energy-economic model is combined with regionalized climate impact outcomes of global climate model.
- Bekchanov M., 2022. Climate-Health-Economics Nexus analysis using Global Climate-Energy-Economic Model. Online participation at Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC Conference), November 30 – December 1, College park, Maryland, USA
- Bekchanov M., 2023. Integrated Assessment Model for analyzing Water-Energy-Food nexus in Central Asia. Italian Association of Environmental Resource Economists (IAERE) Conference, February 23-24, Naples, Italy
- Bekchanov M., 2023. Possible and Plausible Climate Futures in Central Asia. IAMO Forum, June 21-23, Halle, Germany
- Bekchanov M., 2023. (Accepted). Cross-country analysis of future agricultural labor supply change induced by global warming. Online participation at Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC Conference), November 14-16, Venice, Italy